AI has ruled markets since ChatGPT's 2022 launch, but now humanoid robots—AI-powered machines acting autonomously—take center stage. GAM's Tom O’Hara, Investment Director European Equities, forecasts a production boom. Only 13,000 units sold in 2025 (mostly Chinese: AgiBot, Unitree), yet Goldman Sachs projects 1.4 million by 2035, Morgan Stanley over 1 billion by 2050. Elon Musk: more humanoids than humans by 2040.
They'll debut in high-labor manufacturing. Schaeffler Technologies AG sees 10x productivity gains over traditional automation: a $60,000 humanoid replaces three workers across shifts, vs. $600,000 for classic setups. Winners: aerospace (Airbus), auto supply (Valeo), industrials (Siemens, Prysmian).
Value chain: Hardware and semis lead. In Europe: Infineon (chips), ASML/ASM (semi-caps). Chinese firms dominate assembly, but scaling favors tech suppliers.
Risks and impacts: Job losses for low-skilled workers, value shift from labor to capital, disinflation, and faster growth. Yet social divides widen, straining welfare; geopolitics shift to robotics leaders (US, China) with Trump-style protectionism. Low-cost sectors (fast fashion, SE Asia) falter.
GAM spots productivity and margin upsides, but cautions: prosperity won't lift all boats.
