Bitcoin Between a Thin Market and Resuming Inflows: Potential Acceleration Ahead

1. A Rally Worth More Than the Price

In recent days Bitcoin has recovered some ground, but the main source of optimism is not the price itself.
The perpetual‑contract market (un‑dated futures) shows very low trading volumes between the current level and the psychological barrier of $80,000. In other words, market depth is limited: a modest increase in demand could push the price upward with a pronounced speed.

Such a “thin” market condition is typical when liquidity is scarce and price moves become amplified. If the momentum – the force driving the market upward – strengthens, for example thanks to:

• more positive developments concerning the Iranian situation, and

• a broader recovery of all risk assets (equities, commodities, crypto),

we could witness a rapid and significant acceleration of Bitcoin’s price.

2. Whales Are Back Buying

In the crypto world, “whales” (large‑scale holders) often act as an early‑cycle indicator. After a prolonged sell‑off that began in October 2025, the last two weeks have recorded net inflows for the first time since last autumn.

This behaviour aligns with the four‑year cycle typical of large investors: a four‑year distribution phase followed by an accumulation phase. The current return of the whales suggests we may be approaching the end of the distribution phase and the start of a new accumulation period.

3. Capital Flows: +$417 M Net Inflows

• The third consecutive week of net inflows signals a positive shift in market sentiment.

• Although the annual total remains below the previous maximum, the reversal of the early‑week outflows shows a restoring confidence among institutional and retail investors.

4. Exchange Reserves: “Unusually Low” Levels

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum reserves on exchanges are at historic lows. This has two immediate consequences:

1. Less liquid supply for a rapid sell‑off, reducing the risk of a sharp price correction.

2. Greater interest in yield‑generating products (staking, lending, Exchange‑Traded Products – ETP – and Digital Asset Trusts – DAT) that pay passive returns while keeping assets off‑chain.

For Bitcoin, inflows into ETPs and DATs far exceed the daily newly‑minted supply, creating a demand cushion that could quickly translate into upward price pressure should the market approach new highs.

5. Altcoin Performance: Ethereum Up, Solana Down

Ethereum emerges as the best‑performing altcoin, having recovered after a period of under‑performance relative to Bitcoin, thanks to renewed interest in its DeFi ecosystem and the growth of ETH‑linked ETPs.

Solana, by contrast, suffers from persistent outflows, reflecting a deteriorating sentiment driven by recent network issues and increased competition from other smart‑contract platforms.

6. Quantum Computing: A Distant but Real Threat

Quantum computing has resurfaced in the debate after Google announced a more efficient implementation of Shor’s algorithm, theoretically capable of drastically shortening the time required to break the ECDSA cryptography that underpins Bitcoin.

• Current risk: still theoretical and far off, yet sufficient to reignite discussions about long‑term security.

• Proposed mitigations:

  • BIP‑360 – a soft‑fork aimed at making Bitcoin quantum‑resistant via new signature schemes.

  • BIP‑361 – a highly controversial proposal to freeze wallets deemed especially vulnerable (including Satoshi Nakamoto’s addresses). While criticized for violating decentralisation and immutability principles, it helps stimulate necessary discussion on protecting the network against future quantum attacks.

7. Macro Context: Inflation, Rates, and Geopolitics

• Price‑Level Indicators – Both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in below expectations, but have not yet reflected the recent oil‑price surge. Those effects are expected to appear in data releases next month.

• Inflation remains elevated. Futures markets have already priced in the absence of rate cuts for the remainder of the year, although such expectations remain volatile.

• Bitcoin’s performance – Since the onset of the Iranian crisis in early 2025, Bitcoin has posted a +17.4 % gain, while equity indices have fallen and gold has lost ‑7 %. This reinforces the narrative of Bitcoin as an asset capable of performing during geopolitical tension and macro‑economic uncertainty.

8. What to Expect in the Coming Months

In summary, if the market continues to show net inflows, exchange reserves remain low, and the geopolitical backdrop stays favourable, Bitcoin could re‑test the $80,000 threshold in the coming months, potentially launching a more pronounced growth cycle than the current one.