AI agents become the new “rare earths” in the US‑China security contest
Like rare‑earth minerals, autonomous AI agents are now deemed vital to national security. In 2026 the United States and China tighten export rules and forge alliances, sparking a race for digital “strategic materials.”
Over the past year Washington has begun to treat advanced generative‑AI agents (AGI‑agents) as strategic assets on par with critical minerals. The U.S. Department of Commerce placed these agents in its “Artificial‑Intelligence Export Control Guidance” (March 2026), classifying them as Dual‑Use Critical Technologies subject to ARC licensing under the Export Administration Regulations.
Conversely, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) released the “National AI Security Plan 2026‑2035” (February 2026), designating autonomous agents as essential infrastructure for defence, finance and telecommunications and emphasizing their role in digital sovereignty.
Diplomatic fallout is already visible. At the U.S.–China Cyber‑Security Summit in Washington (April 2026) the United States called for a multilateral verification regime on third‑generation AI model exports, warning of the risk of weaponisation of autonomous systems. Beijing, speaking at the G20 AI Working Group (June 2026), denounced the proposal as technological containment and threatened to restrict access to Chinese‑based training hardware for foreign developers.
Analysts at the Brookings Institution (report AI as Strategic Material, July 2026) estimate that by 2030 the market value of AI agents will exceed $300 billion, with roughly 40 % tied to defence‑related projects. The prospect has driven both powers to strengthen partnerships with third‑party nations (Australia, Japan, the EU) to secure independent supply chains, a strategy outlined in NATO’s “White Paper on Technological Resilience” (October 2026).
Looking ahead, the most likely developments are:
Tighter export controls on self‑learning AI models, expanding the list of items requiring ARC licences;
Joint research hubs in the United States and Europe creating “AI Safe Havens” outside Chinese jurisdiction;
Escalating defence spending on AI‑driven autonomous systems, with combined US‑China budgets projected to surpass $500 billion by 2032 (Joint Chiefs of Staff, 2026).
The competition for these digital “rarities” is therefore reshaping geopolitical dynamics, turning autonomous algorithms into the next frontier of strategic power for the coming decade.